Jackpot hari ini Result SGP 2020 – 2021.
Back in the UK, factories have reported their fastest growth since at least the 1970s.
Manufacturing activity improved considerably as the UK economy has reopened, with output volumes in the three months to June growing at the fastest pace on record.
That’s according to the CBI’s latest healthcheck on manufacturing.
The balance of firms reporting higher output volumes surged to +37 this month, with around 52% seeing an increase and just 16% a decrease. That shows the fastest growth since the survey began in July 1975, and is up from +18 in May.
The recovery looks broad-based, with output increasing in 15 out of 17 subsectors, driven by ‘motor vehicles & transport equipment’, and ‘food, drink & tobacco’.
Encouragingly, manufacturers expect output to continue to grow at a decent pace in next quarter (with a balance of +33 predicting higher output volumes).
Companies reported that total order books in June were at their strongest since 1988.
However, 27% of firms reported that export order books were below normal, while only 19% were above normal. That gives a balance of -8, which is the best reading since April 2019.
But the survey also shows that supply chain disruption is causing problems.
More firms warned that their stocks of finished goods are below “adequate” levels, with stock adequacy deteriorating to its weakest on record (since 1977).
Having been hit by rising raw material prices, and other costs, firms also expect to hike their own prices in the next few months.
Around 48% of firms surveyed expected to raise output prices over the next quarter, while just 2% predicted a cut. That gives a balance of +46, the strongest expectations since January 1982.
Tom Crotty, Group Director at INEOS and Chair of the CBI Manufacturing Council, said firms are also struggling to hire staff:
“It is hugely reassuring to see the manufacturing sector performing well after a particularly difficult start to the year. There is a real sense of optimism from many in the sector that there are good times ahead.
“However, the picture is not all rosy, with firms continuing to face difficulties arising from supply chain disruption and cost pressures. Staff shortages are also causing issues for many manufacturing businesses across the country. It will be critical for the government to continue to work with manufacturers to address these issues if the sector’s robust performance is to last over the long-term.”
The European Union has opened an antitrust probe into whether Google’s online advertising technology operations have violated EU competition rules.
The European Commission says the formal antitrust investigation will examine whether Google has hurt rival advertising technology firms, advertisers and online publishers by favouring its own online display advertising technology services, in what’s known as the “ad tech” supply chain.
It will “notably examine” whether Google is distorting competition by restricting third parties from accessing user data for advertising purposes on websites and apps, while reserving such data for its own use, the EC adds.
Brussels’ competition chief, executive vice-president Margrethe Vestager, says the EU is concerned that Google has made it harder for rivals in the online ad services sector to compete.
“Online advertising services are at the heart of how Google and publishers monetise their online services. Google collects data to be used for targeted advertising purposes, it sells advertising space and also acts as an online advertising intermediary. So Google is present at almost all levels of the supply chain for online display advertising. We are concerned that Google has made it harder for rival online advertising services to compete in the so-called ad tech stack.
A level playing field is of the essence for everyone in the supply chain. Fair competition is important – both for advertisers to reach consumers on publishers’ sites and for publishers to sell their space to advertisers, to generate revenues and funding for content.
We will also be looking at Google’s policies on user tracking to make sure they are in line with fair competition.“
The Wall Street Journal has more details:
Some of the EU’s investigation will cover similar ground to a case filed last year against Google by a group of U.S. states led by Texas. Similar areas include Google’s allegedly favoring its own ad-buying tools in the advertising auctions it runs.
But the EU probe will also cover complaints that haven’t yet been the subject of formal inquiries anywhere, including Google’s alleged exclusion of competitors from brokering ad buys on Google-owned video site YouTube.
The EU investigation is also examining Google’s plans to block certain kinds of user-tracking technologies on its platforms, such as the Chrome browser and Android mobile operating system. Curtailing such tracking responds, at least in part, to pressure from privacy regulators and activists, but has led to antitrust complaints from competitors in the advertising-technology industry.
The EC says display advertising spending in the EU was estimated at €20bn in 2019, with many publishers relying on online display advertising to fund free online content for consumers.
The antitrust investigation will examine:
- The obligation to use Google’s services Display & Video 360 (‘DV360’) and/or Google Ads to purchase online display advertisements on YouTube.
- The obligation to use Google Ad Manager to serve online display advertisements on YouTube, and potential restrictions placed by Google on the way in which services competing with Google Ad Manager are able to serve online display advertisements on YouTube.
- The apparent favouring of Google’s ad exchange “AdX” by DV360 and/or Google Ads and the potential favouring of DV360 and/or Google Ads by AdX.
- The restrictions placed by Google on the ability of third parties, such as advertisers, publishers or competing online display advertising intermediaries, to access data about user identity or user behaviour which is available to Google’s own advertising intermediation services, including the Doubleclick ID.
- Google’s announced plans to prohibit the placement of third party ‘cookies’ on Chrome and replace them with the “Privacy Sandbox” set of tools, including the effects on online display advertising and online display advertising intermediation markets.
- Google’s announced plans to stop making the advertising identifier available to third parties on Android smart mobile devices when a user opts out of personalised advertising, and the effects on online display advertising and online display advertising intermediation markets.
In the City, the UK’s blue-chip stock index has risen around 0.3% this morning, lifted by property firms and oil producers.
The FTSE 100 has gained 25 points to 7087, with commercial property developers Land Securities (+4.8%) and British Land (+4.7%) leading the risers after JP Morgan raised its price targets and said the sector could be turning the corner.
Joshua Mahony, senior market analyst at IG, says:
Landlords are at the top of the pile in the UK this morning, with the likes of Land Securities, British Land, and Hammerson all gaining ground as we push towards a full economic reopening next month.
Despite doubts over international travel, there is a great deal of confidence over the ability to reopen the economy next month, with landlords finally able to breathe a sigh of relief as a result.
Royal Dutch Shell (+2.2%) and BP (+1.5%) are also higher, after Brent crude rose above $75 a barrel for the first time since April 2019 (although it’s dipped back since).
But the pound has lost some ground this morning, despite the improvement in the public finances.
Sterling has dropped by half a cent to $1.388 against the US dollar (which has been lifted in recent sessions by the possibility of earlier US interest rate rises). It’s also a little weaker against the euro at €1.167 (-0.15%).
The UK is beginning negotiations to join a free trade alliance with Asia-Pacific countries, a key part of its attempts to pivot trade away from Europe after Brexit.
Britain will hold virtual talks to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), strengthening trade links with the 11 countries in the group, which represent a market of 500 million people.
The existing members of the trade alliance are Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.
The UK government has said a deal with the group would open new markets for Britain’s service industries, while lowering tariffs on exports of goods such as cars and whisky.
British exports to the 11 members of the CPTPP will increase by 65% to £37bn by 2030, according to government estimates. It said UK trade with CPTPP member countries grew by 8% annually between 2016 and 2019.
“This part of the world is where Britain’s greatest opportunities lie. We left the EU with the promise of deepening links with old allies and fast-growing consumer markets beyond Europe,” the trade minister, Liz Truss, said.
“It is a glittering post-Brexit prize that I want us to seize.”
Here’s the full story:
Life after Brexit hasn’t been very glittering for British food and drink manufacturers so far, though — exports the EU tumbled in the first quarter of the year….
This chart from the CEBR shows just how sharply borrowing rose last year, compared to 2019 – and how it has fallen during the first two months of this financial year.
CEBR economist Karl Thompson points out that May’s borrowing (£24.3bn) was lower than the £28.5bn forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility, and also below the monthly average since April 2020.
But, another year of very high borrowing still looks likely….
Whilst higher tax receipts and reduced government spending – themselves symptoms of a continued economic recovery and a waning requirement for government support – are contributing to a slowing of monthly borrowing, public sector net debt in the UK is still projected to rise by a total of £233.9 billion in the current financial year according to the Office for Budget Responsibility.
Adding to this, the borrowing seen in the last financial year suggests that, two years after the crisis, the public purse will be £533.1 billion further in the red than at its onset.
Here’s Danni Hewson, AJ Bell financial analyst, on the public finances in May:
“How you look at today’s public sector finances depends if you are a glass half-full or empty person. On the one hand borrowing in May was down by more than £19 billion compared to the previous year, on the other it was the second highest figure for May since records began and almost £19bn more than May 2019.
“Income was up by £7.5 billion compared to the same time last year, helped along by a 133% increase in fuel duty and an almost 90% leap in stamp duty income but there’s still a huge gap between what’s coming in and what’s going out and interest payments on all that debt has risen substantially, up 26% year on year, though much of that rise is down to changes in RPI.
“But the gap is narrowing as the economy heals. Furlough costs were down a whopping 75% as the country went back to work and, though it doesn’t help with tax receipts, the fact that income from alcohol duty was down 20% reflects changing fortunes as people are able to reengage with friends and family.
“The pandemic has left big scars on the nation’s finances and reopening is a salve but one that needs careful application. Too much, too soon and those inflation worries that have caused so much concern will come to bear. Not enough, too slow, or if variants demand another reverse then there will be difficult conversations about spend vs taxation. But today feel like a glass half full day, more income, less spend and a gentle foot on the accelerator.”
Alison Ring, ICAEW public sector director, believes the chancellor may need to raise taxes in the autumn, despite the pick-up in tax receipts, to tackle some of the demands on the public finances:
“With numbers for the second month of the financial year now in, we can see tax receipts are starting to approach pre-pandemic levels, while borrowing continues to increase despite Covid-19 spending starting to decrease.
“The public finances remain in a fragile state, and ongoing debates about education spending, adult social care and the pensions triple-lock highlight the difficult decisions facing Rishi Sunak as he seeks to balance pressures on our public services with still-growing levels of public debt.
The prospects of the Chancellor raising taxes in the Autumn Budget appear to be increasing.”
The triple-lock means the state pension would rise by the highest out of average earnings growth in the quarter to July, inflation, or 2.5%.
Headline wages rose by 5.6%/year in the three months to April, partly due to distortions in the data due to the pandemic, and are expected to keep rising into the summer, creating pressure to suspend the triple lock.
Downing Street, though, says it is committed to the policy.
Most tax receipt categories rose in May compared with the same month a year ago, as the reopening of the economy helped to improve the public finances.
VAT receipts were up 23% year-on-year, from nearly £10bn to £12.2bn, as consumers returned to the shops as they reopened.
Fuel duty receipts more than doubled (from £1bn to £2.3bn) as more people hit the roads again – for work, or to see family and friends again.
Stamp duty receipts on land and property sales was almost 90% higher, although the stamp duty holiday extension means buyers in England, Wales and Northern Ireland avoided paying tax on at least some of their purchase.
But alcohol duty receipts were down 20% year-on-year (from £1.3bn to £1bn).
Income tax revenues were higher too, as this chart shows, reflecting the improvements in the jobs market.
Jonathan Gillham, chief economist at PwC UK, says today’s public finance data is an improvement on previous forecasts for 2021.. but there are many challenges ahead:
“Going forward, a relatively positive economic growth story in the first quarter of 2021 will give the Chancellor some flexibility in balancing the books over the next five years in line with his plan set out in the March Budget.
But the path ahead is still challenging, more needs to be done to support workforce upskilling, net zero and levelling up investment at pace and the NHS will require further support as it starts to clear the COVID backlog.”
With the economic outlook improving, and borrowing lower than expected, the chancellor should prioritise the recovery rather than tightening fiscal policy.
So argues Resolution Foundation’s James Smith, who points out that the UK economy has performed better than expected this year.
Interest payments on the UK national debt rose in May to £4.3bn, up from £3.4bn a year ago in May 2020.
The ONS says that changes in debt interest are largely a result of movements in the Retail Prices Index of inflation which index-linked bonds are pegged to (so if RPI inflation goes up, so does the cost of repaying those bonds).
RPI is typically higher than the Consumer Price Index, and has lost its status as a “national statistic” as the ONS sees it as a poor measure of inflation. It is due to be phased out in 2030, and brought into line with the CPIH measure of inflation.
Spending on the government’s job protection schemes was significantly lower this May than a year ago, as the reopening of the economy allowed people to return to work.
The ONS estimates that the government spent £2.5bn on the furlough scheme (Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme) in May, 75% less than in May 2020.
Spending on SEISS (the self-employment income support scheme) was down almost 60% year-on-year, at £2.7bn.
The UK’s strong economic recovery is starting to feed through into lower government borrowing, says Thomas Pugh of Capital Economics.
Total tax receipts of £56.9bn in May were slightly lower than April’s £58.1bn, but well above last May’s £49.3bn. The trend in tax receipts should continue to improve over the rest of the year as stronger GDP growth than anticipated by the OBR boosts the public coffers.
And current expenditure dropped sharply from £84.7bn in April to £75.6bn in May. That was mainly driven by a reduction in transfers to local governments. As a result, total public borrowing in May was £24.3bn, down from £29.1bn in April (revised down from £31.7bn).
That means the Chancellor may be spared having to implement his proposed tax hikes and spending cuts before the 2024 general election, Pugh adds, as a rapid economic growth would quickly improve the outlook for the public finances.
March’s budget outlined plans to lift Britain’s tax burden to its highest since the 1960s by the middle of the decade, partly due to freezing income tax thresholds and raising the corporation tax rate in 2023.
The ONS have also revised down their estimate of UK borrowing in April by £2.6bn, to £29.1bn (this borrowing measure excludes public sector banks).
And the estimate of public sector net borrowing (ex banks) in the last financial year (to March 2021) has been trimmed by £1.1bn, to £299.2bn.
That’s still the highest annual borrowing since records began in 1946, and almost double the previous record (set after the financial crisis).
On today’s public finances, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak says:
“As we emerge from the pandemic, we are continuing to support people and businesses to get back on their feet and our Plan for Jobs is working.
“It’s also important over the medium term to get the public finances on a sustainable footing. That’s why at the Budget in March I set out the difficult but necessary steps we are taking to keep debt under control in the years to come.”
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
UK government borrowing dropped last month, as the reopening of the economy helped to improve the public finances, with more firms reopening and people returning to work.
The Office for National Statistics reports that public sector net borrowing came in at £24.3bn in May (this is excluding public sector banks).
That’s £19.4bn less than a year ago, when the government had to borrow around £43.8bn as it ramped up spending to fight the pandemic, and the economy was in lockdown.
It indicates that the easing of lockdown restrictions, and the reopening of hospitality venues and non-essential shops this spring, is now feeding through to the public finances.
It’s also the second-highest borrowing figures for the month of May on record.
The ONS reports that tax receipts rose compared to a year ago, while government spending dipped:
- Provisional May 2021 estimates of central government receipts were £56.9 billion, £7.5 billion more than in May 2020, while central government bodies spent £81.8 billion, £10.9 billion less than in May 2020.
In the first two months of this financial year, the UK has borrowed £53.4bn. That’s the second borrowing for April-May on record (after last year), but still 41.4% less (or £37.7bn) than a year ago.
Encouragingly for the chancellor, this is below the official forecasts for borrowing this year from the Office for Budget Responsibility, as this chart shows:
Michal Stelmach, senior economist at KPMG UK, says:
The reduction in spending from its peak at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic meant that government borrowing was down by £38bn in the first two months compared to last year, amounting to over a half of the improvement forecast by the OBR for the whole year.
“It should come as no surprise that borrowing has fared better than expected this year considering the improved economic outlook. We expect the deficit to fall to £211bn this fiscal year, undershooting the OBR’s forecast by around £23bn.
“Spending should continue to recover in the coming months as the economy absorbs more furloughed workers during the reopening phase. The furlough scheme, which the OBR expected to cost nearly £50bn less this financial year, is likely to undershoot that forecast thanks to stronger demand for staff and some companies returning unused cash to the Exchequer.”
The national debt is at its highest level since the early 1960s.
Public sector net debt has now risen to £2,195.8 billion at the end of May 2021 or around 99.2% of GDP — that’s the highest ratio since the 99.5% recorded in March 1962.
Reaction to follow…
European markets are set for a higher open, after rising yesterday.
- 7am BST: Public Sector Net Borrowing for May
- 11am BST: CBI Industrial Trends survey for June
- 3pm BST: Eurozone consumer confidence flash survey for June
- 3pm BST: US existing home sales for May